UCD Students are likely to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the Lisbon Treaty, with 57 per cent of those polled preparing to vote Yes in Friday’s referendum, while 22 per cent of students have yet to decide how they will cast their votes.

An exclusive poll released today by The University Observer, taken late last week on the Belfield campus, showed that only 17 per cent of students intend to vote No to the Treaty, a much lower proportion of voters than are indicated in recent nationwide opinion polls.

Of students who were yet to decide how to vote, over two thirds – 68 per cent – were female.

Male voters surveyed expressed greater support for the referendum, with 66 per cent of respondents intending to vote Yes, 16 per cent voting No, and an almost identical number undecided on how to vote. Female voters were slightly less polarised, with just over 50 per cent having decided to support the Treaty, compared to 18 per cent disapproval. 28 per cent of female students were yet to decide how to cast their vote at Friday’s polls.

Splitting the results of the poll by each of UCD’s five Colleges, students in the College of Business & Law were most strongly supportive of the Treaty. 68 per cent of students in the College intended to vote Yes, with just 8 per cent against ratification. The College of Arts & Celtic Studies was the only one not to report a clear majority of Yes votes, though the pro-Lisbon vote still totals 47 per cent, with 24 per cent of students declaring themselves against the Treaty.

Only 3.2 per cent of students who have registered to vote said they were unlikely to vote in Friday’s referendum.

500 students took part in The University Observer’s survey, which was undertaken on Thursday and Friday of last week in a variety of major buildings throughout the Belfield campus.

Meanwhile a poll of NUI Galway students at a debate organised by their Literary and Debating Society showed a very narrow margin of victory for the Yes side. As with the first referendum, these results would suggest greater support for the Yes side in the Dublin area, than in more rural parts of the country. Unlike with the first referendum however, the Yes side appears to be narrowly leading with students in the west.

Methodology
Students were interviewed on Thursday 24th and Friday 25th September, and asked, “Are you registered to vote, and if so, how are you planning on voting in the Lisbon Treaty referendum?” A small additional number of staff were also interviewed but their responses were later discounted. The responses of students who were ineligible to vote or who were not registered to do so were disregarded. The total number of valid responses tabulated in the survey was 500.

The debate on the Lisbon Treaty has been marked by a complete absence of engagement by the Yes side. Those in favour of Lisbon have refused to debate with either the arguments of serious No campaigners (preferring to ridicule the likes of Cóir) or the actual text of the Treaty. Instead, the establishment have tried to engage in a campaign of empty generalities – encouraging us to vote Yes variously for jobs, the economy and for Europe. Therefore, it is necessary to state clearly that the vote on October 2nd is not about any of these things.
Instead, this is a crucial vote on the future direction of the European Union for many decades to come. If passed, Lisbon would enshrine the agenda of the economic and political elite in the European Union. In this article, I want to focus on three crucial areas – the copperfastening of attacks on workers’ rights, the pushing of a privatisation agenda and the extensive further militarisation of the EU.
The Yes side has attempted to create the impression that Lisbon will improve workers’ rights. They point to the “Solemn Declaration” on workers’ rights and to the Charter of Fundamental Rights. The “solemn declaration” is a vague aspirational document, which has as much standing as a pre-election promise of Fianna Fáil.
Not only would the Charter not improve the conditions of workers; in fact, it would mark a change for the worse. That is because the Charter (in Paragraph 1 of Article 52) explicitly states that workers’ rights are limited. In the official explanation, which is given legal basis in Lisbon, this is stated to be in accordance with the case law, “in particular in the context of a common organisation of the market”.
However, the case law (Laval, Ruffert and Luxemburg) has been universally bad for the interests of workers. The European Court of Justice has repeatedly interpreted the Posting of Workers Directive in such a way as to legitimise the paying of lower wages and conditions to migrant workers. Thus, we are being asked to vote yes to limiting workers’ rights, institutionalising the vicious “race to the bottom” in workers’ wages and conditions.
A vital change from the point of view of the European business establishment is contained in the changes to how services are entered into world trade talks by the EU. Up to now, any member state could veto a proposal that would force them to open up their Health or Education services to be traded as commodities. Lisbon categorically removes this veto except in very limited circumstances.
IBEC, the employers’ organisation campaigning for a Yes vote is very clear on the consequences, declaring in a submission to the Forum on Europe:
“The Lisbon Reform Treaty creates the legal basis for the liberalisation of services of general economic interest. A Yes vote creates the potential for increased opportunities for Irish business, particularly in areas subject to increasing liberalisation such as health, education, transport, energy and the environment.”
Thus, Lisbon could institutionalise a disastrous privatisation policy, while denying people the right to try to force a change in this policy.
The Lisbon Treaty would give a significant further thrust to the militarisation of the European Union. Article 42 of the Treaty on the European Union would declare “Member States shall undertake progressively to improve their military capabilities”.
In addition, the €60 billion European armaments industry, purveyors of instruments of death to horrific regimes internationally, is brought to the very heart of the EU with this Treaty. For the first time the European Defence Agency, whose key role is promoting that armaments industry, is given an institutional basis in an EU Treaty.
Lisbon also allows the most powerful military states to set up military alliances amongst themselves within the EU. It would crush the right of Ireland to conduct an independent foreign policy. It says “member states shall support the unions external and security policy actively and unreservedly in the spirit of loyalty and mutual solidarity”.
The Lisbon Treaty represents the aggressive, neo-liberal agenda of the EU big business, military and political establishment. It is seriously damaging to the interests of the vast majority across Europe. It should be rejected on Friday, with a wide-ranging debate begun about what kind of Europe we want. In my opinion, that should be a socialist Europe: a Europe where the vast resources are used to benefit ordinary people, instead of maximising big business profits.

Joe Higgins is the Socialist Party MEP for Dublin. www.joehiggins.eu

In these turbulent times, one thing at least is certain: the EU is vital for Ireland. World events have highlighted the importance of a strong European Union providing global leadership and capable of dealing with the economic downturn. The Lisbon Treaty represents an important step towards resolving our present difficulties. Now that we have our legal guarantees in place to address the genuine concerns of last year, there are plenty of reasons for approving the Lisbon Treaty.

The purpose of the Lisbon Treaty is to reform the EU, making it more dynamic and effective. Next Friday we will be asked if we want a better functioning Union or one that has its hands tied by out-of-date rules.

If the past year has shown us anything, it’s that Ireland is best equipped to deal with the current financial and economic crises with the full force of the EU behind it. The liquidity provided to Irish Banks by the ECB has proved indispensable. The ECB has also ensured that our interest rates are at an all-time low. There is no doubt that the EU has helped Ireland to weather the economic storm.

We need to keep this big picture in mind as we weigh up the merits of the Lisbon Treaty next Friday.

Few would disagree that we have benefitted from our membership of the European Union. As a member of the EU, Ireland has direct access to 500 million consumers. Prior to joining the EEC in 1973, Britain was the main destination for Irish exports. Now 63% of all our exports go to the EU.

Ireland’s membership of the EU and participation in the Single European Market has been the most significant factor in broadening our country’s economic horizons and ending our dependence on Britain.

The Single European Market has helped indigenous Irish companies to develop their export performance. Two out of every three jobs in Ireland now depend on exports.

Equally, it has helped Ireland to attract a vastly disproportionate share of foreign direct investment, particularly from US companies. Multinational companies view access to European markets as a key factor in their investment decisions. With only one per cent of the Union’s population, Ireland attracted 25 per cent of all new US investment in Europe in the decade up to 2005.

Our status as a positive member of the EU has been fundamental to attracting a thousand foreign companies to locate here. These companies have created 150,000 jobs directly, and approximately 200,000 others indirectly.

Our capacity to continue bringing in investment will be crucial to our future prospects.

A resounding Yes vote would send a strong political message to foreign investors that we are fully committed to the EU. At a time when competition for foreign investment is very strong, Ireland would not benefit from sending out confused signals about our future in Europe.

As someone who has participated in many meetings with people who invest in this country or are considering it, I can say very clearly that Ireland’s place as a positive country at the heart of Europe has been a critical competitive advantage.

This is the model that has worked for us before; we must now decide if we want to abandon it.

Those who say that we can reject Lisbon, and leave our standing within the Union and our international reputation unaffected, are seriously mistaken.

I have not met a single serious job creator who believes that there is any conceivable positive economic side to a No vote.
A further rejection of the Treaty would undermine our hard won image as a good place to do business. This would ultimately cost us jobs and investment. Failure to pass the Treaty would also leave us in unchartered territory with regards to our European neighbours. Having addressed our concerns in relation to tax, the right to life, neutrality and the retention of our Commissioner, they would find it difficult to understand our motivation for voting No again. There is no doubt that the goodwill that we had built up over 36 years of pro-active membership would be diminished. Compromise and goodwill are the lifeblood of a union that is based on a shared sense of respect and responsibility.

The vote on Friday is about creating a stronger, more dynamic Union. It is in all of interests to ensure that Ireland is part of a reformed Union that is better equipped to deal with the current economic challenges.

Micheál Martin TD is Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Director of Elections for Fianna Fáil’s Lisbon referendum campaign.