Fine Gael has ruled out coalition with other political parties and groupings and wants the current government to be re-elected, which is looking increasingly unlikely as the election draws nearer. Kevin Maguire questions whether they have made a huge mistake by ruling out certain parties before the count.
Not only is Enda Kenny outgoing Taoiseach, he is also the current Father of the Dáil, a purely honorific title bestowed on the TD with the longest period of continual service to Dáil Éireann. While he may well be pleased at his longevity in Irish politics, he will undoubtedly be more pleased that he is in the record books for another reason: namely as the Fine Gael Taoiseach whose administration has lasted the longest period of time. Next week, however, he will seek an even greater prize: to become the first Fine Gael leader to serve as Taoiseach in two successive governments. There are many obstacles in his path, however, much of which are of his and Fine Gael’s own making.
Having previously committed to making the government last the full term of five years, Kenny flirted with the idea of calling a snap election in November. Perhaps due to pressure from coalition partners Labour, calling an election in November was scrapped in favour of an early spring election. Both government parties may regret that decision come Friday’s results. Opinion polls since the start of the year show that Fine Gael have dropped five percentage points and are now on a downward slide.
That coalitions have become the natural form of government in Ireland is not in doubt; what is in doubt, however, is the composition of the 32nd Dáil. Translating the current poll numbers into projected number of seats puts Fine Gael on around 50 seats and the Labour Party on around 10 seats which leaves them substantially short of the required 79 to govern. This leaves Fine Gael in a predicament as it has repeatedly ruled out the possibility of entering into a coalition with either Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin who are on track to be the second and third largest parties after the election respectively.
This strategy leaves Fine Gael with only the smaller parties and Independents to deal with if they want to cobble together what would be a diverse coalition of interests. Interestingly, however, both the Social Democrats and Renua, contesting national elections for the first time, have both failed to rule out going into coalition after the election. Renua leader, Lucinda Creighton, once of Fine Gael, recently expressed her strong desire to be part of the next government in some capacity, which is no surprise given their ideological similarities to Fine Gael. Current polls put both parties in between 2-4 per cent. On those figures, and taken in conjunction with Fine Gael’s numbers, it is unlikely either would have a decisive say in the formation of the government. However if their campaigns continue to do well those figures could increase substantially, potentially giving them greater clout in the inevitable post-election bargaining process.
Before the election campaign had officially begun there was strong speculation that Kenny could seek the support of certain independents, most notably controversial ex-Fine Gael TD Michael Lowry, to create the next government. Though it took a while, Kenny eventually ruled out the possibility of Lowry being part of any future administration due to pressure from figures within both government parties. However, Shane Ross, leader of the recently formed Independent Alliance group, is of the opinion that independents will play an influential role in the composition of the next government. Kenny may be forced to prove Ross right.
Have Fine Gael ruined their chances of getting into government by ruling out all other parties for a coalition? It would certainly seem so, especially considering the recent poll trends. It would take a volte-face of enormous proportions from Kenny to do a deal with Fianna Fáil after the election. Irish politicians do have form however in this regard as Des O’Malley in 1989 and Dick Spring in 1992 can attest to. A week is a long time in politics and though we cannot predict with any level of certainty the make-up of the next government at this time, what we can be sure of is that the rest of the campaign will see Fine Gael try and scare the electorate into voting for them. By constantly spinning that any government without Fine Gael will result in instability and economic mismanagement, they will hope to claw back some of their lost voters in the hope of maximising their seat numbers and rendering the unpalatable possibility of a non-Fine Gael/Labour coalition null.
Based off the current predictions, a hung Dáil is the most likely outcome. Another election soon after this one would be a distinct possibility should Fine Gael try and form a minority administration. This would be a remarkable turnaround five years on from being the senior partner in a government with the largest majority in the history of the state. Fine Gael’s problems are mostly of their own making and they could end up paying a severe price for being so vehement in ruling out potential coalition partners pre-election. Labour’s impending electoral collapse may force them to shift their thinking from potential government partners to concentrating on the survival of the party by moving to the opposition benches. This possibility will be more pressing should they experience an increasingly inevitable post-election leadership change. Fine Gael have an enormous amount of work to do between now and polling day to ensure they remain in government in the 32nd Dáil and ensure Enda Kenny does what no previous leader of Fine Gael managed to do to date: serve as Taoiseach in two successive governments.
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